France's Le Pen faces crunch verdict before presidential vote

France's far-right chief Marine Le Pen faces a key ruling next week that will determine if she can run in the 2027 presidential elections, in what is seen as her best chance at the top job.

A lower court handed the 57-year-old politician a five-year ban from public office last year and a two-year sentence over a fake jobs scam at the European Parliament, dashing her ambition to head the EU state.

If the appeals court on July 7 upholds last year's bombshell ruling, the three-time presidential candidate from the National Rally (RN) party will be banned from vying to replace outgoing centrist President Emmanuel Macron.

Le Pen came third in the 2012 polls, then twice made the runoffs against Macron in 2017 and 2022.

She has said she will decide whether to compete next year after the appeal court ruling, which also include a shorter ban from public office and some form of house arrest.

"I'm not scared," she said this week in the run-up to the verdict.

"If I can run, I will -- as long as I can campaign."

Le Pen has suggested that her lieutenant, 30-year-old RN party leader Jordan Bardella, could stand instead if she has to step down.

- 'Witch hunt' -

The first trial found Le Pen -- along with 24 former European lawmakers, assistants and accountants as well as the anti-immigration party itself -- guilty of operating a system from 2004 to 2016 to use European parliament funds to employ RN staff in France.

The lower court also sentenced Le Pen to four years in jail, with two suspended.

Le Pen claimed her party was the victim of a "witch hunt" and some supporters sent the judges death threats.

The presidential candidate, the party and 11 others appealed.

During the appeal trial, she denied that the RN had any system to embezzle European Parliament funds and has said her party acted in "complete good faith".

But prosecutors allege she "professionalised" a way to divert EU funds first introduced haphazardly by her father Jean-Marie Le Pen after she took over its leadership from him in 2011.

They have demanded the court maintain a five-year ban and sought a four-year term, with three years suspended, for Le Pen over the embezzlement of what the EU institution says were several million euros.

- 'Need to be free' -

If Le Pen is handed a ban from office of several years, she will not be able to run for president in time for the first round on April 18 next year.

Similarly, if she is condemned to serve a one-year term on house arrest with an ankle tag, crippling her ability to campaign, she will likely decide to hand over to Bardella.

"When you're a presidential candidate, you need to be completely free to move around," she said on Wednesday in an interview on the LCI television channel.

"I can't depend on a magistrate to allow me to go to a rally."

Opinion polls in recent months have largely suggested the far right will lead in the first round of next year's vote, but are divided on the outcome of the second round.

An opinion poll in late May suggested Le Pen could win the runoffs next year if she is allowed to compete.

The Harris Interactive Toluna survey of more than 1,700 registered voters projected her winning, against hard-left leader Jean-Luc Melenchon as well as centrist former prime ministers Gabriel Attal and Edouard Philippe.

Other polls have however suggested Philippe -- who is also courting right-wing voters -- could emerge victorious in a runoff against the far right.

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© Agence France-Presse