Farnborough 2026: drones, fighter jets and sovereignty

The future European fighter jet, the race to develop drones and the quest for autonomy in the face of Washington's unpredictability will be among the issues dominating the Farnborough Airshow, which opens Monday in England.

Held every two years, alternating with Le Bourget near Paris, this year's airshow could also mark the comeback of Boeing, which is seeking to put the deep crisis that has shaken the group in recent years behind it.

"With the war in Ukraine and Donald Trump's rise to power, there has been a real acceleration in issues relating to sovereignty and rearmament in Europe," Pascal Fabre of the international consultancy AlixPartners told AFP.

While the defence sector usually accounts for 40 per cent of exhibitions, this year it is expected to account for almost as much as the civil sector, said the event's managing director, Gareth Rogers.

Following its recent spectacular deep strikes against Russian refineries and military installations, Ukraine will have a large presence at the exhibition, where additional space has been set aside to accommodate its exhibitors.

With their "battle-tried" solutions from the drone war, which are "of interest to a huge number of industrial players", the Ukrainians will be "courted" at Farnborough, said Fabre.

Following the abandonment of SCAF, the Franco-German-Spanish fighter aircraft programme, all eyes at Farnborough will turn to its main rival, the GCAP, developed by Britain, Italy and Japan.

The programme gained momentum this month after the three countries allocated 4.6 billion pounds ($6.2 billion) to continue its development. They aim to have it in service by 2035.

All parties will be "keen to show off the progress made thus far and to emphasise unity now that the UK has finally committed to large-scale funding", said Justin Bronk of the British think tank RUSI.

Boeing will be showcasing its MQ-28 Ghost Bat, an autonomous combat drone presented as a potential partner of the fighter being developed under the GCAP programme.

The aircraft illustrates the growing role of drones in modern conflicts, at a time when unmanned systems have radically transformed the Ukrainian front.

The German group Rheinmetall has entered into a partnership with Boeing to integrate the MQ-28 into the German Air Force's capabilities.

Developed in collaboration with the Royal Australian Air Force, the aircraft is expected to be available to Germany by 2029. Such partnerships, however, are reigniting the debate on Europe's ambitions for defence sovereignty.

On the commercial aircraft side, Boeing -– whose reputation has been hit by several incidents involving its planes -– will be under greater scrutiny regarding the certification timetable for its three new aircraft, all several years behind schedule.