Germany could miss climate goal in 2026 for first time: think tank

Germany risks missing an annual climate target in 2026 for the first time unless cuts to greenhouse gas emissions sharply accelerate, a think tank warned Friday. 

The warning from Agora Energiewende will add to criticism that Europe's biggest economy is backsliding on fighting the climate crisis under conservative Chancellor Friedrich Merz's government.

Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in Europe's biggest economy fell around two percent in the first half of the year, driven largely by weaker oil demand amid the Middle East war energy shock, the think tank said.

But if reductions continue at the same pace, emissions in 2026 would fall only to 635 million tonnes -- 13 million below 2025 levels but 10 million above a cap set out in Germany's climate protection act, Agora said.

While there may be no immediate consequences for missing this year's target, it signals that the country is on course to miss a legally binding 2030 target of cutting emissions 65 percent by 2030.

"To be able to meet the 2030 climate target, annual savings of around 40 million tonnes of CO2 are required," the think tank said.

Germany has a legally binding goal of achieving greenhouse gas neutrality by 2045.

The slowing pace of reductions has sparked worries that Merz's government is more focused on helping big business and boosting the stagnant economy than tackling climate change.

Criticism intensified after Germany, like elsewhere in Europe, faced a summer of droughts and heatwaves.

Merz sought to assuage his critics this week, insisting that "long-term lessons" would be drawn from the difficult summer.

The council of experts on climate change, an independent body appointed by the government, also warned in May that Germany was not on track to hit its 2030 climate goal.