DR Congo's president faces uncertain path to a third term

Democratic Republic of Congo's constitutional court this week approved a proposal that could see President Felix Tshisekedi run for a third term after a referendum.

Here is what we know:

Tshisekedi, 63, has been in power since 2019 and under the current constitution has to step down at the end of his second five-year term at the end of 2028.

The head of state and his supporters have for months been preparing public opinion, without explicitly stating that he will seek a third term.

But they have called for a revision of the constitution that they deem to be "out of step with the expectations of the population".

At a rare news conference in early May, Tshisekedi maintained that he had "not sought a third term" but stated: "If people want me to have a third term, I will accept".

The Congolese constitution limits the president to two terms and stipulates that it cannot be amended.

A bill approved on Tuesday by the constitutional court would make it possible to alter the constitution's "prohibited subjects of revision" in the event of "major dysfunction" paralysing state institutions, at the president's initiative.

To do so, the head of state would have to convene a panel of experts whose conclusions would be submitted to a constituent assembly.

That assembly could then approve them by a three-fifths majority, before putting the bill to a public vote.

The judiciary and legislature are widely regarded as lacking independence in DR Congo, and opponents of the bill doubt that they could genuinely stand up to those in power.

A new constitution could equally reset the presidential term count for Tshisekedi.

The anti-government M23 group has seized swathes of territory in the eastern regions of North and South Kivu, backed by Rwanda and its army.

Voters in these provinces might not go to the polls for the 2028 presidential election or a referendum.

The peace accord signed in Washington in December between DR Congo and Rwanda has not ended fighting.

But the conflict has "generated a powerful wave of nationalism which, at least temporarily, strengthens the political position of Tshisekedi against a backdrop of populist discourse", the Ebuteli research institute said.

Sixty percent of Congolese questioned believe their country is going in the "wrong direction" but more than 80 percent gave a favourable opinion of the president, according to an Ebuteli survey published in June.

DR Congo's political opposition emerged weakened and fragmented from the 2023 presidential elections that Tshisekedi won by a wide margin.

In recent months, it has regrouped in a coalition nicknamed "C64" to oppose a change to the constitution but its ability to mobilise remains uncertain.

Nevertheless, civil society "is clearly more fragmented than 10 years ago" and has succumbed to "a certain weariness after years of political struggle", the Ebuteli institute said.

The international community, it added, could send a "strong signal" by clearly opposing the proposed reform.

On June 12, an opposition protest in the capital, Kinshasa, against the draft referendum law spiralled out of control, and several opposition members were wounded in clashes with pro-government activists and the police.

The United Nations condemned the death of "at least one protester".

The opposition has not yet officially reacted to the Constitutional Court's decision.

The opposition postponed a day of national action planned for July 22 against the change to the constitution after the government announced the organisation of a national dialogue.

The government has long opposed holding a national dialogue with certain opposition representatives that it accuses of colluding with the M23, in particular former president Kabila.

The opposition has urged the dialogue to begin before August 15 or face protests.